In the coming decades, the world’s petrochemical industry will focus more on quality, efficiency and environmental friendliness than on overall scale and capacity. The development trend of international petrochemical industry will be mainly reflected in the following aspects:
First, the shift of industrial focus is driven by improving the international competitiveness of industries and products. Industrial center of gravity is in favor of a certain industry and product development direction to transfer. At present, the Middle East and North America’s industrial adjustment and the developed countries’ industrialization show new characteristics are driven by the shift of the petrochemical industry’s center of gravity.
Secondly, the petrochemical industry needs to be prepared for long-term development under medium and low oil prices, and consider how to grasp the market opportunities and the entry point of industrial development.
Third, the material structure is light, low carbon and diversified. According to projections, the next five to ten years will be an active period of international trade in low-carbon resources, such as us shale gas, Middle East light hydrocarbons and condensate.
Fourth, product differentiation, characteristics, high-end. In the future, the market will highlight the demand for differentiated, characteristic and high-end products, and the development of high-end differentiated products is conducive to reducing the market risk of enterprises.
Fifth, we need to strengthen industrial innovation. Internationally, petrochemical and chemical companies have become the subject of innovation, making innovation more practical and practical.
Sixth, we need to pay more attention to green, energy conservation and environmental protection, and pay more attention to the application of cleaner production and production safety monitoring.
Seventh, industrial integration and mergers and acquisitions are becoming more high-end, reflecting the characteristics of combination of strong and complementary advantages. High quality reconstruction is the progress of petrochemical industry.
The changing petrochemical industry in China
China’s petrochemical industry structure is undergoing adjustment, which is reflected in the following aspects:
First, industrial growth rates change rapidly. During the period of “the tenth five-year plan” to “the twelfth five-year plan”, the output value of China’s petrochemical industry has been growing every year. Due to the low international oil price in 2015, it declined and rebounded in 2016. Although there is no problem with the general trend of China’s petrochemical industry development, the growth rate changes too fast, with the highest rate of 20% and the lowest rate of only a few percent, while the raw material industry growth rate of foreign developed countries basically stays at the level of 2% ~ 3% higher than the economic growth rate. It indicates that the development of China’s petrochemical industry is still not stable and mature.
Secondly, the application ratio of industry in different consumption fields changes, mainly from agriculture and textile light industry to automobile, machinery, electronics, electronic information, urban architecture and other fields. From 1987 to 2012, the proportion of petroleum and chemical industry in 20 consumer fields changed. Before 2012, the proportion of petrochemical sales was largely in the agricultural field. After 2012, the proportion decreased by more than half. Petrochemical sales application more into the relevant industrial fields.
Third, the industrial system experienced restructuring. The motivation of industrial system reconstruction comes from the changes of industrial value, raw material supply, technical capacity, demand pattern and economic system. China’s petrochemical industry has entered the life stage from the survival stage, and will enter the ecological stage next.
China’s petrochemical industry development needs to pay attention to the problem
China’s petrochemical industry focuses on oil refining, olefin, aromatics, modern coal chemical industry, new chemical materials and traditional chemical industry. There are some problems to be concerned about in the current development of the above-mentioned industries.
Refining: the task of tackling overcapacity in the refining industry is very serious. According to the forecast, China’s refining capacity will increase by 100 million tons in 2020. Although some backward production capacity will be withdrawn, there will be an increase. First, be cautious about adding refining capacity, especially pure refining capacity. Secondly, small, medium and large refinery processing levels are different, each has a division of labor, are going the same way is not going to go. Third, part of the refinery transformation and refining integration, products to avoid low-end. Attention should be paid to downstream high-end new materials and fine chemicals.
Olefin: the problem with olefin is that the raw material is not very light. North American olefin feedstocks are heavy ethane cracking and light hydrocarbons. Most of China’s ethylene raw materials are naphtha, facing the impact of North America and the Middle East’s low-carbon, low-cost resources. The olefin industry needs to pay attention to the increasing urgency of material lightening and the new pattern of diversified development. New ethylene projects require competitive analysis and optimization of product plans. Based on the characteristics of domestic resource endowment, it is necessary to reasonably guide the orderly development of olefin industry by coal/methanol to make olefin and other new raw material routes, and strengthen industry management and guidance.
Aromatics: the aromatics industry needs to pay attention to the adjustment and optimization of the layout, combined with the integration of refining and chemical development. The aromatics production should not be expanded when the refining scale is not in place. Refining and chemical integration should fully implement the principles of “oil should be oil”, “ene should be ene” and “fragrance should be fragrance”.
Modern coal chemical industry: the development task of modern coal chemical industry is to improve the level of demonstration and upgrading, solve environmental problems, pay attention to competitiveness, and strive to achieve the integrated development of related industries. The macro market space of modern coal chemical products is large, but the regional market around the project is particularly important. Reducing product logistics cost is an important contribution to improve the competitiveness of coal chemical projects. We should pay attention to the promotion process of China’s carbon emission rights trading and budget the carbon cost. Calculate the full cost including logistics and environmental protection, and analyze the competitiveness of products under medium and low oil prices. To explore the development model of clean coal gasification, multi-combined supply of heat, hydrogen and syngas and optimization and integration of oil refining process, and to carry out industrialization demonstration of comprehensive utilization of coal and oil by relying on large refineries.
New chemical materials: new chemical materials have become one of the fields with the fastest growth of market demand in China’s chemical industry system. In recent years, the average annual growth of many products consumption is more than 10%. New chemical materials and special chemicals have been transformed from the emerging economic growth points of the industry during the 11th five-year plan period to the backbone forces driving the rapid development of the industry during the 12th five-year plan period, playing an irreplaceable role. High-end specialty chemicals account for about 30% of the total specialty chemicals, 1/3 of which are imported. The development direction of high-end specialty chemicals is high performance and environmental protection.
Traditional chemical industry: in the next decade, the development tasks of traditional chemical industry are to reduce production capacity, strengthen weak spots and transform and upgrade, including the adjustment, transformation and upgrading of nitrogen fertilizer, pesticides, chlor-alkali, soda ash and tires.